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What is crystal ball Excel?

Crystal Ball is an easy-to-use simulation program that helps you to analyze the risks and uncertainties associated with your Microsoft Excel spreadsheet models. Excel models are deterministic, which means that the inputs are fixed (one value to one cell).

Who uses Oracle Crystal Ball?

Oracle Crystal Ball is for strategic planners, financial analysts, engineers, scientists, entrepreneurs, CPAs, marketing managers, venture capitalists, consultants, Six Sigma professionals, and anyone else who uses spreadsheets to forecast uncertain results.

How are assumptions defined in a crystal ball?

To define assumptions in Crystal Ball EPM:

1. In the Strategic Finance Worksheet under Uncertain Inputs, select a cell or a range of cells.
2. Select Define, and then Define Assumption or click .
3. In the Distribution Gallery, select the distribution for the first cell.

How do you use the Crystal Ball Program?

Steps for Using Crystal Ball

1. Create a spreadsheet model in Microsoft Excel format with data and formula cells that represent the situation to analyze (Quantifying Risks with Spreadsheet Models).
2. Start Crystal Ball (Starting and Closing Crystal Ball).
3. Load a spreadsheet model.
4. Using Crystal Ball, define assumption cells and forecast cells.

How do you run a Crystal Ball simulation?

To run a simulation using Crystal Ball:

1. Setup Spreadsheet.
2. Define Assumptions—i.e., random variables.
3. Define Forecast—i.e., output or performance measure.
4. Choose Number of Trials.
5. Run Simulation.
6. View Results.

How do you set up a crystal ball?

To load Crystal Ball within Microsoft Excel:

1. Click the Office button, or select the File ribbon.
2. Click the Microsoft Excel Options button, and then click the Add-Ins link.
3. In the Manage list at the bottom of the Add-Ins dialog, select COM Add-Ins and click Go.
4. In the COM Add-Ins dialog, select Crystal Ball.

How do I download Crystal Ball software?

Oracle Crystal Ball is a spreadsheet-based application for risk measurement and reporting, Monte Carlo simulation, time-series forecasting and optimization….Oracle Crystal Ball Downloads.

Download	Product	Version
Download	Oracle Crystal Ball Release	11.1.2.4

How do I activate the crystal ball in Excel?

To set Crystal Ball to start automatically each time you start Microsoft Excel:

1. In Windows, select Start, then All Programs, then Oracle Crystal Ball, and then Application Manager.
2. Select Automatically launch Crystal Ball when Microsoft Excel starts.
3. Click OK. Note:

Features of Oracle Crystal Ball

• Provide a spreadsheet-based application
• Modeling, simulation, forecasting and predictive optimization features
• Improve productivity with accurate results on what matters
• Make the right tactical decisions to reach your audience
• Gain a competitive advantage in the most uncertain conditions
• Enables measurement and reporting of risks in key indicators
• Improve performance and enhance decision-making
• Simulates Monte-Carlo and provides better simulation features
• Advanced decision-making features
• Improved performance and many powerful tools
• Powerful risk analysis and uncertainty management features
• Excel platform for risk analysis with financial assessment management
• A practical and accessible way to model uncertainty
• Analyze patterns and provide time series forecasts
• Six Sigma application with many additional tools
• Using historical data to process data

What is Oracle crystal ball used for?

Oracle Crystal Ball is the leading spreadsheet-based application for predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. It gives you unparalleled insight into the critical factors affecting risk.

Where should you place a crystal ball at home?

According to vastu crystal balls attract more positive energy by hanging in window to attract sun rays to the house. Place 8 crystals at all corners. Hang crystal in window to attract sunrays.

What do crystal balls mean?

1 : a sphere especially of quartz crystal traditionally used by fortune-tellers. 2 : a means or method of predicting future events.

What is crystal ball finance?

Financial modeling using crystal ball is the use of a software called Oracle Crystal Ball. The software can be used in conjunction with Excel spreadsheets as a way of performing advanced modeling techniques such as simulations, optimization, predictive modeling, forecasting, and risk analysis.

Which crystals are good for what?

Different types of healing crystals

• Clear quartz. This white crystal is considered a “master healer.” It’s said to amplify energy by absorbing, storing, releasing, and regulating it.
• Rose quartz. Just as the color may suggest, this pink stone is all about love.
• Jasper.
• Obsidian.
• Citrine.
• Turquoise.
• Tiger’s eye.
• Amethyst.

What is @risk used for?

100% Excel Integration. @RISK integrates seamlessly with Excel’s function set and ribbon, letting you work in a familiar environment with with results you can trust.

What do you call someone who uses a crystal ball?

nounperson attempting to tell the future. augur. clairvoyant. crystal ball gazer. diviner.

What do you call someone who reads a crystal ball?

Crystal gazing may be used by practitioners—sometimes called “readers” or “seers”—for a variety of purposes, including to predict distant or future events, to give character analyses, to tell fortunes, or to help a client make choices about current situations and problems.

What is the luckiest crystal?

Here Are the Best 12 Crystals for Good Luck and Prosperity

• Green Jade – for wealth and business abundance.
• Red Jade – for creative success.
• Tiger Eye – for being open to opportunity.
• Citrine – for good vibrations.
• Green Aventurine – for financial stability.
• Clear Quartz – for amplifying dreams.

How do you use the crystal ball in Excel?

To load Crystal Ball within Microsoft Excel:

1. Click the Office button, or select the File ribbon.
2. Click the Microsoft Excel Options button, and then click the Add-Ins link.
3. In the Manage list at the bottom of the Add-Ins dialog, select COM Add-Ins and click Go.
4. In the COM Add-Ins dialog, select Crystal Ball.

What does crystal ball do excel?

Crystal Ball is an easy-to-use simulation program that helps you to analyze the risks and uncertainties associated with your Microsoft Excel spreadsheet models. Excel models are deterministic, which means that the inputs are fixed (one value to one cell). You can only see one solution at a time.

How do you run a Crystal Ball simulation?

To run a simulation using Crystal Ball:

1. Setup Spreadsheet.
2. Define Assumptions—i.e., random variables.
3. Define Forecast—i.e., output or performance measure.
4. Choose Number of Trials.
5. Run Simulation.
6. View Results.

Is crystal ball excel free?

Oracle Crystal Ball Pricing Overview They do not have a free version.

How much is Crystal Ball Excel?

Buy new: $64.95. Only 8 left in stock – order soon.

Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer

Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer adds optimization and substantial processing speed to the power of Monte Carlo simulation. With Decision Optimizer, you can automatically search for your optimal solution to business, finance, and operational spreadsheet models.

Decision Optimizer is easy to use. A wizard guides you through the process of specifying your objectives and defining your constraints and requirements. After you define the optimization parameters, Decision Optimizer quickly pinpoints the set of inputs that best meet your goals, and transfers this to your spreadsheet model. Examples of optimization include finding the asset allocation that maximizes return for a given level of risk, or choosing staffing levels that minimize cost while maintaining required service levels.

This concludes our discussion of Crystal Ball. With this flexible, integrated tool, you can solve problems in which uncertainty and variability have traditionally distorted forecasts and make better decisions to impact the bottom line.

Глава 3. Генерация случайных чисел

В строго детерминированном мире процессорных кодов внесение в программу элемента случайности – не такая простая задача, как может показаться на первый взгляд. В этом мы убедились, получив значение числа Пи в программе, приведенной в главе 2. Наиболее часто встречающиеся приложения, в которых необходимо использование случайных чисел – это численное моделирование методом Монте-Карло и создание компьютерных игр.

Итак, дадим определение этих чисел. Обозначим через R
непрерывную случайную величину, распределенную равномерно в интервале (0, 1).

Случайными числами называют возможные значения r j непрерывной случайной величины R, распределенной равномерно в интервале (0, 1).

В действительности пользуются не равномерно распределенной случайной величиной R
, возможные значения которой имеют бесконечное число десятичных знаков, а квазиравномерной случайной величиной R’,
возможные значения которой имеют конечное число знаков. В результате замены R
на R
’
разыгрываемая величина имеет не точно, а приближенно заданное распределение.

Случайная величина R’ обладает свойством: вероятность попадания ее в любой интервал, принадлежащий интервалу (0; 1) равна длине этого интервала.

Получение случайных чисел – важная стадия компьютерного эксперимента, которой не всегда уделяется должное внимание. Используемые на практике численные алгоритмы приводят к получению псевдослучайных чисел, особенностями которых являются ограниченность и повторяемость последовательности

Исчерпание этой последовательности при большом числе циклов Монте-Карло или размере системы снижает ее фактический размер до:

N
– размер системы (количество частиц);

P
–

период последовательности псевдослучайных чисел;

k
– количество случайных чисел, используемых для определения состояния одной частицы;

n
– суммарное количество циклов Монте-Карло, необходимое для стабилизации системы и расчета ее характеристик.

Например, при моделировании системы Изинга, состоящей из 2000
частиц требуется, как правило, не менее 500
циклов МК, т.е. необходимо не менее 10
5
случайных чисел. Если используемый генератор является 16-тиразрядным и не может произвести последовательность, состоящую из более чем 2
16
(65536)
псевдослучайных чисел, то фактический размер системы по формуле будет порядка 1000
частиц.

С играми ситуация еще более трагическая: например, колода из 52
карт может быть упорядочена 52!
способами. Это примерно 8e67
или 2
226
. Значит для того, чтобы в процессе игры мог возникнуть любой расклад, создателю полноценной карточной игры типа «21» необходим 256 разрядный генератор случайных чисел. Если колода состоит из 36
карт, то соответствующие числа равны 4e41
и 2
138
, т.е. без суперкомпьютера опять не обойдешься. В карточной игре «преферанс» количество вариантов раздач равно 32!/10!
или 2
96
, что тоже не мало. Несмотря на несравнимость этих чисел с реальными возможностями 32-х разрядного процессора, необходимо, конечно, использовать его возможности максимально, ведь только так можно приблизиться к разнообразию реальности.

Основные принципы использования Crystal Ball

Основные принципы использования Crystal Ball включают следующие шаги:

1. Создание модели: в Excel для начала необходимо создать модель, которая представляет бизнес-процесс или сценарий, который вы хотели бы проанализировать или прогнозировать. Модель может включать в себя ячейки с данными, формулы, условные выражения и другие элементы Excel.
2. Выбор входных параметров: после создания модели необходимо определить входные параметры, которые будут влиять на результаты. Эти параметры могут быть числами, текстом или формулами в ячейках Excel.
3. Задание вероятностей: для каждого входного параметра необходимо задать распределение вероятностей, которое описывает его вариативность. Crystal Ball предлагает широкий спектр стандартных распределений вероятностей, таких как нормальное, равномерное, треугольное и другие.
4. Запуск моделирования: после задания вероятностей для входных параметров можно запустить моделирование. Crystal Ball будет случайным образом выбирать значения для входных параметров в пределах заданных вероятностей и вычислять результаты модели.
5. Анализ результатов: после запуска моделирования можно проанализировать полученные результаты. Crystal Ball предоставляет различные инструменты и графики для анализа результатов, такие как диаграммы распределений, графики чувствительности и другие.
6. Прогнозирование и принятие решений: на основе результатов моделирования можно делать прогнозы будущих сценариев и принимать решения на основе этих прогнозов. Crystal Ball позволяет проводить анализ сценариев и симуляции для оценки различных вариантов и выбора наилучшего решения.

Основные принципы использования Crystal Ball в Excel позволяют пользователям создавать более точные и надежные прогнозы, проводить анализ чувствительности и оценивать риски в бизнес-моделях. Этот инструментарий открывает новые возможности для принятия информированных решений и повышения эффективности бизнеса.

Oracle Crystal Ball Alternatives

If you’re understanding the drawbacks and you’re looking for a Oracle Crystal Ball alternative, there are more than 145 competitors listed on Business-Apps !

If you’re in the market for a new software solution, the best approach is to narrow down your selection and then begin a free trial or request a demo.

Compare Oracle Crystal Ball Pricing Against Competitors

Software	Starting Price	Billed	Free Trial
ORACLE CRYSTAL BALL	$	Per month / user	Yes
EPICA	$	Per month / user	No
GRIDCURE	$	Per month / user	Yes
HYLLO	$	Per month / user	Yes
IDEATA ANALYTICS	$	Per month / user	No
MARKETINGTRACKER	$	Per month / user	No
MINDSDB	$	Per month / user	No
MONUMENT	$159,16	Per month / user	Yes
	$	Per month / user
	$	Per month / user

Top 10 Alternatives & Competitors to Oracle Crystal Ball

– IBM SPSS – SAS Advanced Analytics – KNIME – SAP Analytics Cloud – TIBCO Spotfire – RapidMiner – Sisense – JMP – Sidetrade – Bime Analytics

You can also take a look at other applications, like our Oracle Customer Hub review and our HSE Compliance review.

Comparison with Similar Software & Contenders

Take an in-depth look at popular Business Intelligence & Analytics Software to find out which one is right for your needs. Discover how these Business Intelligence & Analytics Software compare to Oracle Crystal Ball when it comes to features, ease of use, customer support and user reviews. Explore software, Compare options and alternatives, Read reviews and Find your solution !  

Compare Business Intelligence & Analytics Software

8.6Expert Score

Oracle Crystal Ball ReviewOracle Crystal Ball is a very popular business intelligence & analytics SaaS software to know for your company or business.

Ease of use

8.6

Functionnality

8.6

Integrations

8.6

Customer support

8.6

Value for money

8.6

PROS

SaaS platform

CONS

Not always the cheapest option

Crystal ball для excel: выгодный инструмент для расчетов и прогнозов

Одним из главных преимуществ Crystal Ball является его удобство использования. Интерфейс программы интуитивно понятен даже для новичков, что позволяет быстро освоить основные функции инструмента и выполнять сложные расчеты без необходимости обширных знаний в области статистики и экономики.

Одной из ключевых возможностей Crystal Ball является проведение симуляции Монте-Карло. С помощью этой функции пользователи могут создавать модели, основанные на вероятностном подходе и анализе больших объемов данных. Симуляция Монте-Карло позволяет моделировать случайные события и оценивать риски, связанные с различными вариантами развития ситуации.

Crystal Ball также предлагает широкий набор статистических функций и алгоритмов, которые позволяют анализировать данные и делать прогнозы с высокой точностью. Среди них стоит отметить функции регрессии, оптимизации, и корреляции, а также возможность создания диаграмм и графиков для наглядного представления информации.

При использовании Crystal Ball пользователи могут получить надежные и точные результаты при проведении финансовых анализов, составлении бюджетов, прогнозировании спроса, определении рисков и принятии решений. Инструмент позволяет учитывать неопределенность и предвидеть возможные варианты развития событий, что помогает принимать взвешенные и обоснованные решения.

В заключение, Crystal Ball для Excel — это выгодный инструмент, который позволяет расширить возможности пользователей Excel, сделать более точные прогнозы и провести комплексный анализ рисков. Использование этого инструмента поможет повысить эффективность работы с данными и принятия решений в различных сферах деятельности.

Where can you use a crystal ball at?

In its digital version, the crystal ball can be used on your smart-phone. That means that you can use it anywhere. At the park while you walk the dog. At the beach, as you are taking a sun bath.

How much does a quartz crystal ball cost?

This amazing elestial quartz crystal ball looks wonderful on a light box! See also a back view photo of this quartz crystal ball. We are offering this large decorator sphere of natural elestial quartz crystal (rock crystal) at a special offer below wholesale discounted price of $225/kg = $3835.

Why does the crystal ball give a clear answer?

It’s because the online crystal ball has to connect with the universe and there is a small delay. But, little by little, if you come near the magic object, you will see like a wavering light. And finally a clear answer appear inside.

What makes a quartz crystal ball semi transparent?

This rare quartz crystal ball is semi-transparent to transparent with hundreds of long slender black tourmaline crystals passing through the quartz! Some areas of this sphere are cloudy, and some areas are transparent. See a back-side image of this quartz with black tourmaline sphere.

Can you use the crystal ball on mobile?

You cannot use it in mobile. It is a gamepass for people that use computers or laptops.

How to create Excel spreadsheet for Crystal Ball?

Create a spreadsheet model in Microsoft Excel format with data and formula cells that represent the situation to analyze ( Quantifying Risks with Spreadsheet Models ). Start Crystal Ball ( Starting and Closing Crystal Ball ).

How to create a simulation with Crystal Ball?

Follow these general steps to create and interpret simulations with Crystal Ball. The remaining chapters provide detailed instructions: Create a spreadsheet model in Microsoft Excel format with data and formula cells that represent the situation to analyze ( Quantifying Risks with Spreadsheet Models ).

What are the steps in the crystal ball?

The remaining chapters provide detailed instructions: Create a spreadsheet model in Microsoft Excel format with data and formula cells that represent the situation to analyze ( Quantifying Risks with Spreadsheet Models ). Start Crystal Ball ( Starting and Closing Crystal Ball ).

How to do Monte Carlo simulations with Crystal Ball?

Crystal Ball (standard edition) is the easiest way to perform Monte Carlo simulations in your Excel spreadsheets and models. Crystal Ball automatically calculates thousands of different “what if” cases, saving the inputs and results of each calculation as individual scenarios.

Что такое Crystal Ball Excel

Crystal Ball Excel предоставляет различные статистические функции и инструменты, такие как симуляция Монте-Карло, регрессионный анализ, классификация и решающие деревья, анализ сценариев и многое другое. Эти функции позволяют пользователям исследовать различные варианты и сценарии, а также предсказывать результаты на основе обработки большого количества данных.

Crystal Ball Excel также позволяет пользователям проводить чувствительностный анализ, исследуя, как изменения входных данных будут влиять на итоговые результаты. Это позволяет пользователям оценивать риски и принимать меры для управления ими заранее.

Пользоваться Crystal Ball Excel довольно просто. После установки плагина доступны новые функции и инструменты в Excel. Пользователи могут использовать эти функции для создания моделей и анализа данных, выбирать нужные инструменты из меню и вкладок, а также проводить симуляции и прогнозы для получения результатов.

Crystal Ball Excel является мощным инструментом для анализа и прогнозирования данных, который может быть полезен в различных сферах, таких как финансы, логистика, маркетинг и другие. Он помогает пользователям принимать обоснованные и основанные на фактах решения, облегчая процесс прогнозирования и анализа данных в Excel.

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Oracle Crystal Ball

Oracle Crystal Ball is a powerful application for data processing in a spreadsheet-based environment to create predictive models along with forecasting and simulation features.

Enterprise Crystal Ball is an industry-leading and powerful spreadsheet-based application for predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation, and data optimization. With unparalleled insight into the critical factors that can pose any risk. It is the perfect application for analysis and simulation, assisting in making tactical decisions to achieve goals. And gain a competitive edge over uncertain market conditions. It is a comprehensive solution for measuring risk and provides accurate reporting features to enhance productivity.

With Monte Carlo Simulation along with time series forecasting and optimization, this powerful application provides a reliable solution to produce accurate results. It provides perfect simulation features with a more accessible and realistic way to model uncertainty. It can measure and report risk in key indicators. Oracle Crystal Ball uses historical data to produce accurate results. In conclusion, it is a reliable application for predictive modeling, simulation, forecasting, simulation and optimization and gives unprecedented insight into the important factors involved to any risk.

Oracle Crystal Ball Enterprise assists you in predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. After installing this plugin, a new tab will be added to your Excel environment, which will help you with easy financial calculations and economic analysis. This plugin makes it easy to calculate and forecast earnings, calculate financial risk, and more. With Crystal Ball, you can make the right tactical decisions to achieve your goals and gain a competitive edge, even in an uncertain market. You can view the analysis results illustrated with different types of charts.

Unparalleled insight into the critical factors affecting risk

Crystal Ball is for strategic planners, financial analysts, engineers, scientists, entrepreneurs, CPAs, marketing managers, venture capitalists, consultants, Six Sigma professionals, and anyone else who uses spreadsheets to forecast uncertain results.

What-if analytics

Use Monte Carlo simulation to automatically calculate and record the results of thousands of different what-if cases.

Know where to focus your efforts

Analyze what-if scenarios to reveal a range of possible outcomes, their probability of occurring, the inputs that most impact your model, and where to focus your efforts.

Communicate your results

Share your findings through graphs, charts, and reports that let you vividly present and communicate the results of your analyses.

Start using Crystal Ball in minutes

Work as a team, sharing models and data to get your work done faster. Draw on the spreadsheet technology you already own.

Powerful optimization

Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer, an option for Crystal Ball, adds the advanced capability of optimization to the power of Monte Carlo simulation.

Improve your decisions

Identify and mitigate the key inputs that drive risk. Optimize your decisions while accounting for variation and constraints.

Share your findings through graphs, charts, and reports to support decisions. (A Crystal Ball license is required.)

A complete package for uncertainty management

Oracle Crystal Ball Suite is a spreadsheet-based solution for Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting, and optimization. This complete package combines Crystal Ball and Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer for powerful risk analysis and uncertainty management.

Model uncertainty

Leverage Crystal Ball’s realistic and accessible way of modeling uncertainty to measure and report on the risk inherent in your key metrics.

Obtain metrics for Six Sigma applications

Analyze your models with Crystal Ball’s time-series forecasting, analysis tools and reports, capability metrics for Six Sigma applications, and a full set of additional tools.

Identify feasible solutions

Use Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer to identify feasible solutions to your business, finance, and operational spreadsheet models that meet your risk/return profile, objectives, and requirements.

Determine the best business results

Quickly assign ranges of values to your inputs then forecast outputs and their probabilities. Discover the best business results while accounting for uncertainty. Analyze historical data with time-series forecasting and regression.

Communicate your risk analysis results

Determine which inputs most drive risk and mitigate your risks. Effectively display and communicate your risk analysis results with a comprehensive set of example models.

A full-functioned version for the academic community

Oracle Crystal Ball Classroom Edition is a full-functioned version of the software that’s available for the academic community. This solution includes Crystal Ball and Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer—an option for Crystal Ball that adds optimization to the power of Monte Carlo simulation. Crystal Ball Classroom Edition is offered in both a student and a faculty version.

Student edition

Oracle Crystal Ball Classroom Student Edition is a full-functioned, self-expiring, term-limited edition of Oracle Crystal Ball software for classrooms, with options for one- and two-year license terms. This version is identical to the commercial products, with the advantage of being affordably priced for academic budgets. The minimum purchase is 25 seats. Technical support is not available.

Faculty edition

Oracle Crystal Ball Classroom Faculty Edition is a full-functioned, nonexpiring edition of Crystal Ball software, designed specifically for university and college faculty members. This version is identical to the commercial products, with the advantage of being affordably priced for faculty budgets. Technical support is available.

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